The Influence of macroeconomic indicators on the emission of greenhouse gases. Treatment of outliers. Case study - România

• Author: Gradinaru E., Bratucu G., Bucs L.
• Pages: 233-248

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov

Series: Economic Sciences • Vol. 8 (57) No. 1 – 2015

The influence of macroeconomic indicators on the

emission of greenhouse gases. Treatment of outliers

Case study - România

Evelina GRDINARU 1, Lorant BUCS2, Gabriel BRTUCU3

Abstract: This paper implements the multiple linear regression method in order to

determine the correlation between a number of independent variables and a dependent

variable. It begins with a brief introduction explaining the purpose of this analysis, and

continues with the implementation of the econometric model in order to calculate the

coefficient of determination that the four significant macroeconomic indicators, namely the

amount of energy produced from renewable sources, gross domestic product (GDP), the

price of Brent oil barrel on the European market and the energy intensity of the economy

have on total emissions of greenhouse gases in Romania. The final part will expose the

conclusions of the present analysis.

Key-words: econometric model, regression, renewable energy, greenhouse gases.

1. Introduction

This paper aims to achieve a detailed analysis of the significant impact of several

macroeconomic factors on greenhouse gas emissions. The need for such an analysis

comes from a major concern that is currently observed both at a global, national and

multinational level, for achieving the aspirations of sustainable ecological and

economic development. Therefore, it will be demonstrated further along that

apparently independent factors have a significant influence on each other with a

decisive impact on environmental quality.

2. Objectives of the analysis

It is well known that global warming is a phenomenon whose magnitude has

taken alarming proportions, both nationally and globally. Ultimately, the quality of

1 Transilvania University of Braşov, evelina.gradinaru@gmail.com

2 Transilvania University of Braşov, lorand.bucs@unitbv.ro

3 Transilvania University of Braşov, gabriel.bratucu@unitbv.ro

Evelina GRDINARU, Lorand BUCS, Gabriel BRTUCU

234

life of each individual depends on the quality of the environment and human

influence was noted through its rather negative than positive effects. In order to

correct this injustice brought to the planet, a series of measures are being

implemented in order to improve the current adverse effects of human lifestyle on

the environment.

One of the most important challenges is represented by global warming

caused by emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and measures such as

limiting emissions from industry and transport or looking for alternative sources of

energy became mandatory in most countries.

The European Union is one of the strongest supporters of reducing

greenhouse gas emissions and Romania, as a member of this organization, aligns

with European environmental policies. If in some areas, such as GDP and energy

consumption, there are still noticeable differences between our country and other

member states, in other sectors, such as renewable energy, the results are more than

satisfactory. To support this assertion, there is a relatively easy to calculate indicator:

the amount of energy produced from renewable sources per GDP. Thus, while the

EU average is around 14 tons of oil equivalent energy to 1 million euro GDP, in

Romania this value reaches approximately 38 tons.

Given these considerations, the objective of this analysis is to calculate the

coefficient of determination that the four significant macroeconomic indicators,

namely the amount of energy produced from renewable sources, gross domestic

product (GDP), the price of Brent oil barrel on the European market and the energy

intensity of the economy have on total emissions of greenhouse gases in Romania.

3. The econometric model

The study considers representative data for the period 2004 -2013, in order to

determine the extent to which exogenous variables considered here the production of

energy from renewable sources (x1), GDP (x2), oil prices (x3) and the energy

intensity of the economy (x4) explain variations of the endogenous variable, which

is the production of renewable energy (y).

The table below shows the values of the indicators referred to Romania: