Fuzzy approach to innovative programs development in conditions of partial and full uncertainty

• Author: Chernov V, Dorokhov O., Dorokhova L.
• Pages: 399-418

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov

Series V: Economic Sciences • Vol. 9 (58) No. 2 - 2016

Fuzzy approach to innovative programs development

in conditions of partial and full uncertainty

Vladimir CHERNOV1, Oleksandr DOROKHOV2, Liudmyla DOROKHOVA3

Abstract: In the article the authors develop their research aimed at the use of fuzzy logic

and fuzzy set theory to model the solution of economic problems. In particular, there are

considered approaches to formation of innovative programs and the choice of a set of

innovative projects, and their components, under varying degrees of uncertainty. Among the

major selection criteria were identified such as financial capacity, payback period,

profitability, social significance, regulatory compliance, degree of novelty, size of the

market, opportunity of international cooperation, financing flexibility, flexibility of project

and others. Algorithms using fuzzy linguistic expert assessment of the main criteria that

characterize the innovative programs are proposed. At the same time can be taken into

account the level of competence of experts as well as the requirements of the regional

authorities and the degree of uncertainty. The proposed solutions are based on the multi-

criteria convolutions of criteria estimates, max-min approach and computational analysis of

the relations of domination. Are given examples of calculations for the pessimistic and

optimistic approaches to the solution. Also described approach of rigorous dominance,

interval dominance and not dominance in the case of considerable uncertainty, allows

establish the relative degree of efficiency and a measure of preference for several innovative

projects. The described theoretical approach can be successfully extended to other situations

need formalized solving of multicriterial choice problems on the set of alternatives in

conditions of different degrees of uncertainty in the economy.

Key-words: innovative program, economic uncertainly, fuzzy modeling, linguistic

assessment ,multi-criteria convolution, fuzzy set, multicriterial choice problem

1. Introduction

It is obvious that to achieve success within the framework of any regional

innovation program need to be considered objective conditions of implementation

for this program (Antonescu, 2008; Bobylev et al, 2008; Grillo and Landabaso,

2011). Among these basic conditions are existing regional assets; the level of

1 Vladimir State University, Russia, vladimir.chernov44@mail.ru

2 Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, Ukraine, aleks.dorokhov@meta.ua

3 National Pharmaceutical University, Ukraine, liudmyladorokhova@gmail.com

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov • Series V • Vol. 9 (58) No. 2 - 2016

400

innovation development; the level of cooperation between the innovation

participants (Radosevic, 2002; Wamser et al, 2013). Therefore projects and hence

the programs should be appropriately selected according to the conditions of

implementation (Ganter and Hecker, 2014; Benita et al, 2016). That is, they should

be well compatible with innovative potential of the region, as shown in Figure 1.

Fig. 1. Harmonization of the region's innovative potential

with the conditions of the program implementation

(source: own authors’ elaboration)

Model of consistency assessment of region

innovative potential with conditions of

implementation and compliance criteria

f

or concrete t

yp

e o

f

innovation

p

ro

j

ec

t

Innovative program

)

,

1

,

(

K

kVV

k

==

Set of innovative projects

),1,()( IiPVP i

k

==

Criteria evaluation system for i kind of

innovation project )(

i

PC

Decision

to choose

System of estimates

that characterize the innovative potential

Criteria for evaluation

of factors and

Degree of manifestation of these evaluations

)( j

QC

Region