Forecasting the selling price of timber auctions

• Author: Antonoaie, V. - Antonoaie, C.
• Position: PhD Student, Dept. of Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Transilvania University of Brasov - Dept. of Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Transilvania University of Brasov
• Pages: 109-118

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov • Vol. 5 (54) •No. 1 - 2012

Series V: Economic Sciences

FORECASTING THE SELLING PRICE

OF TIMBER AUCTIONS

V. ANTONOAIE1 C. ANTONOAIE2

Abstract: This paper focuses on the development of an econometric model

for the forecast of the closing price of timber auctions in the Maramures

area, using the multiple linear regression model and taking into account six

exterior variables. After applying the statistical tests, we defined the model

which contains only four significant independent variables. The results can

be used to forecast the closing prices for future auctions.

Key words: econometric model, forecast, multiple linear regression, timber

auctions.

1 PhD Student, Dept. of Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Transilvania University of Braşov.

2 Dept. of Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Transilvania University of Braşov.

1. Introduction

We have developed an econometric

model to analyse the evolution of the

closing prices (PA) for birch logs (first

quality) at the Maramures auctions.

The prices are real for the main yearly

auctions, in January-February (for the

wood harvested in February, March and

April) and September-October (for the

felling carried out between October and

January of the next year).

As explanatory variables, we have taken

into account the following characteristics:

x1 – the starting bid (PP) – lei/m3

x2 – the quantity of wood auctioned and

sold (at all the analysed auctions the

entire quantity was sold) (QL) – m3

x3 – number of participants (NF)

x4 – number of steps is the auction from

first call to the sale (NP)

x5 – the selling price to the timber plants

(PV) – lei/ m3

x6 – the costs for the felling company for

harvesting, debarking, transporting to the

road and to the factory (CR) – lei/ m3

2. The econometric model

The model employed was the multiple

linear regression using the formula:

tktkttt

xaxaxaay

ε

+++++= ...

22110

t

t

xaxaxa

xaxaxaay

ε

+++

++++=

665544

3322110

t

CRaPVa

NPaNFaQLaPPaaPA

ε

+++

++++=

65

43210

(1)