Evolution of the Romanian Labour Market - Analysis and Forecast of Statistical Indicators from 2005 to 2019

• Author: Grajdieru (Coman) E. - Ciongradi M.
• Position: Transilvania University of Brasov - Transilvania University of Brasov
• Pages: 175-182

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşo v

Series V: Economic Sciences • Vol. 11 (60) No. 2 – 2018

EVOLUTION OF THE ROMANIAN LABOUR

MARKET - ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF

STATISTICAL INDICATORS

FROM 2005 TO 2019

E. GRĂJDIERU (COMAN) 1 I.M. CIONGRADI2

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to forecast the number of job

vacancies on the Romanian labour market using an econometric model. In

order to achieve this purpose, the researchers analysed eight statistical

indicators using the multiple regression. The conclusions point out that only

four of independent variables have a significant influence on the number of

vacancies and only these were used for forecasting. Research results show

that in 2019 there will be a significant increase in the number of vacancies.

This is largely due to the drop in the number of the usual resident population.

Key words: labour shortages, job vacancies, econometric model, forecasting

1. Introduction

After the 1989 revolution the Romanian labour market underwent considerable

changes. Because of the closure of many factories and state-owned enterprises the

unemployment rate rose sharply. If in 1991 the unemployment rate was only 3%, in

1992 it almost tripled, reaching 8.2%, and in 1999 a maximum rate of 11.8% was

recorded (Tempo, 2018). In 2003 the situation began to improve, a nd since 2005 the

phenomenon of labour shortage has emerged (Cindrea, 2007, p.25). Labour shortages

occur when demand for a certain category of specialists exceeds the supply of qualified

workers that are looking for a job in a particular field (Visco, 2001, p.4). This

phenomenon is largely caused by the fact that the number of active enterprises has

doubled from 2005 to 201 6 (Tempo, 2018), as well as negative natural growth and

population migration.

The phenomenon of labou r shortages is reflected in the number of vacancies, which

depends largely on the eco nomic activity of enterpri ses, but also on certain demographic

and labour market indicato rs. The purpose of this paper is to establish the validity of the

regression model to use it to forecast the average number of job vacancies.

1 Transilvania University of Braşov, ecaterina.grajdieru@unitbv.ro

2 Transilvania University of Braşov, ioana.ciongradi@unitbv.ro