Analyzing and forecasting the European social climate

• Author: Duguleana L., Duguleana C.
• Pages: 207-224

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov

Series V: Economic Sciences • Vol. 8 (57) No. 1 - 2015

Analyzing and forecasting the

European social climate

Liliana DUGULEANĂ1, Constantin DUGULEANĂ2

Abstract: The paper uses the results of the sample survey Eurobarometer, which has been

requested by the European Commission. The social climate index is used to measure the

level of perceptions of population by taking into account their personal situation and their

perspective at national level. The paper makes an analysis of the evolution of social climate

indices for the countries of European Union and offers information about the expectations of

population of analyzed countries. The obtained results can be compared with the forecasting

of Eurobarometer, on short term of one year and medium term of five years. Modelling the

social climate index and its influence factors offers useful information about the efficiency of

social protection and inclusion policies.

Key-words: social climate index, unemployment rate, corruption perception index,

econometric model, forecasting.

1. Introduction

The literature about the effects of economic crisis emphasized some convergence

trends between the richer and poorer country members of European Union countries

during the last decades, as recently mentioned in the report “Social cohesion in

Europe after the crisis” (Dethlefsen, Emmanouilidis, Mitsos et al., 2014). The future

of Europe is subject of important research projects financed by European

Commission, interested about the main concerns of European citizen on long term,

their hopes and fears and their choices and perceptions of the main issues of well-

being in Europe (Quintana-Trias, 2010).

European social climate is a framework concept for characterizing the well-

being of European citizens. Considering the social climate as a barometer of well-

being in each country, the European social climate is more than a result of a simple

aggregation operation of the national social climate indicators of EU countries. It

enhances also the relationships between the EU countries and covers complex issues

related on emigration phenomenon and social investments of European Union

1 Transilvania University of Braşov, ldugul@unitbv.ro

2 Transilvania University of Braşov, cduguleana@unitbv.ro

Liliana DUGULEANĂ, Constantin DUGULEANĂ

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institutions. The subtle effect of sustainability principle appears as a basic

explanation of the holistic approach of European social climate, as a key element for

the future of European Union.

The literature on European social climate consists mainly on the reports of

Eurobarometers (European Commission, Special Eurobarometers: 349, 2010; 370,

2011; 391, 2012; 408, 2013). The aspects envisaged by the Eurobarometers surveys

considered the dimensions identified in the literature on the well-being in Europe.

The AUGUR project of the EU was the main instrument for funding research

for the period 2007-2013 (Tancioni, 2013). The reports of the research projects

established as important dimensions: Well-being of society in future, Personal well-

being, Health services – priorities for spending, Education – priorities for spending,

Employment/ income – priorities for spending, as mentioned by the reflection

project “Well-being in 2030” (TNS Qual+, Eurobarometer Qualitative studies,

2011), undertaken in eight EU member states, in 2011: Estonia, Germany, Greece,

France, Poland, Romania, Sweden and the UK.

For the personal well-being, the conclusions of the aggregate report

emphazised the key factors as being the interrelated areas: health, education and

employment. Employment offers access to health and education. Education is

important for employment and “a good health is fundamental to being able to

function in society and thus is fundamental to well-being.” (TNS Qual+, 2011).

In a conclusion of the report “Social cohesion in Europe after the crisis”

(Dethlefsen, Emmanouilidis, Mitsos et al., 2014, p. 31), ”health was pointed to as

the most important element influencing the quality of life” based on the respondents’

views in seven EU member states concerning the crisis and the future of Europe.

Certain expected general directions were perceived, as: promotion of prevention

behaviours, development of healthcare structures, extension of publicly funded

treatments, and investment in medical research. The private healthcare system was

perceived as being a discrimination of the poor (TNS Qual+, 2011).

Concerning the employment / income – priorities for spending, the report

(TNS Qual+, 2011) offered the main directions: reducing unemployment, economic

growth and increasing competitiveness.

The factors influencing the well-being are considered important in the same

measure and they are interrelated; the changes to one impact on another (Pompili

and Miccadei, 2010). The social well-being for European citizens is influenced

mainly by the social inequality and economy (Wolleb and Daraio, 2013).

The economic growth may conduct to decreasing unemployment and may

relax the social inequalities ensuring good healthcare and education. The view until

year 2030 was obstructed by the actual economic crisis (TNS Qual+, 2011).

The social climate refers to the aspects of social well-being taking in

consideration: health, education, recognition, social inclusion and employment and

income equality “as a condition for social cohesion and long-term development”

(Wolleb and Daraio, 2013).