Modeling Growth – between Public Policy and Entrepreneurship
Analysis of the Evolution of Statistics in Romania
Cătălin Angelo Ioan1
Abstract: This article examines the evoluti on of statistical data (in this case GDP) from their temporarily
character to the final one. It has highlighted a number of inconsistencies or opposite evolutions which implies
that the use of statistical data not definitive may lead to erroneous conclusions.
Keywords: GDP; statistics; index
The approach of building theoretical models for forecasting, quality and quantity of data is an essential
precondition for establishing relations both, but especially for their applicability.
A model that theoretically provide all kinds of functional relationships is required to consider the
possible application in practice, otherwise becoming pure speculation with no utility.
In the activity of collecting the data needed for verification of a model or another, we found over time
as they undergo changes, sometimes essential, that overturns the theory formulated from the start. It is
clear that a well-designed model must take into account the stability of the solutions to changes in the
parameters or variables. Conjuctural models based on the same kind of behaviour or on periods “well
chosen” will never have a scientific character, remaining on a purely speculative level.
This analysis follows a study, but not very profound scientific, of data (provided by the National
Institute of Statistics of Romania in its official documents) variability. Will not interest us too much the
causes of these changes, but more their implications for the modeling activity or setting verdicts on the
As indicator of the analysis, we considered the Gross Domestic Product (key indicator in the diagnosis
of any economy) in the period 2006-2014, data on both quarterly (unadjusted due to the fact that the
activity comparison refers to the corresponding period of analysis) as well as annual, so they result
from INSSE Monthly Statistical Bulletin of the above period.
2. Analysis of Changes in GDP Reports
Analyzing statistical data disclose by Monthly Statistics Bulletins of INSSE, regarding both the
absolute size of GDP (in current prices) and the growth indices, we found that over three years (time
1 Associate Professor, PhD, Department of Economics, Danubius University of Galati, Romania, Address: 3 Galati Blvd.,
Galati 800654, Romania, Tel.: +40372361102, Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org.