Analysis Of The Evolution Of Statistics In Romania

• Author: Catalin Angelo Ioan
• Pages: 397-404

Modeling Growth – between Public Policy and Entrepreneurship

397

Analysis of the Evolution of Statistics in Romania

Cătălin Angelo Ioan1

Abstract: This article examines the evoluti on of statistical data (in this case GDP) from their temporarily

character to the final one. It has highlighted a number of inconsistencies or opposite evolutions which implies

that the use of statistical data not definitive may lead to erroneous conclusions.

Keywords: GDP; statistics; index

1. Introduction

The approach of building theoretical models for forecasting, quality and quantity of data is an essential

precondition for establishing relations both, but especially for their applicability.

A model that theoretically provide all kinds of functional relationships is required to consider the

possible application in practice, otherwise becoming pure speculation with no utility.

In the activity of collecting the data needed for verification of a model or another, we found over time

as they undergo changes, sometimes essential, that overturns the theory formulated from the start. It is

clear that a well-designed model must take into account the stability of the solutions to changes in the

parameters or variables. Conjuctural models based on the same kind of behaviour or on periods “well

chosen” will never have a scientific character, remaining on a purely speculative level.

This analysis follows a study, but not very profound scientific, of data (provided by the National

Institute of Statistics of Romania in its official documents) variability. Will not interest us too much the

causes of these changes, but more their implications for the modeling activity or setting verdicts on the

Romanian economy.

As indicator of the analysis, we considered the Gross Domestic Product (key indicator in the diagnosis

of any economy) in the period 2006-2014, data on both quarterly (unadjusted due to the fact that the

activity comparison refers to the corresponding period of analysis) as well as annual, so they result

from INSSE Monthly Statistical Bulletin of the above period.

2. Analysis of Changes in GDP Reports

Analyzing statistical data disclose by Monthly Statistics Bulletins of INSSE, regarding both the

absolute size of GDP (in current prices) and the growth indices, we found that over three years (time

1 Associate Professor, PhD, Department of Economics, Danubius University of Galati, Romania, Address: 3 Galati Blvd.,

Galati 800654, Romania, Tel.: +40372361102, Corresponding author: catalin_angelo_ioan@univ-danubius.ro.