Factors affecting the long-term success of new parliamentary parties: findings in a post-communist context.

• Author: Fink-Hafner, Danica
• Position: Report

Introduction

Following an initial academic interest in party formation and survival (Duverger 1954), research into the electoral success and parliamentary durability of new parties (4) has remained rather underdeveloped. This is probably because few Western countries (the Netherlands being the exception) have experienced the rich phenomenon of new political parties emerging. However, two further rounds of research have since taken place. During the 1980s, political scientists analysed the process of de-freezing post-Second World War party systems embedded in postmodern social movements (the so-called New Social Movements), bringing about a new party family (the Greens). A further round of in-depth research interest in new parties has recently begun (characterised by the work of Allan Sikk, Tim Haughton and Kevin Deegan-Krause). While this latter round initially focused on studying the dynamics of post-communist party systems, it has not yet produced a considerable number of publications but rather has been joined by some studies in older democracies (e.g. Deschouwer, ed., 2008; Bolleyer 2013; Bolleyer & Bytzek 2013). However, we are not aware of any research into new parties that systematically takes into account the impact that the recent international financial and economic crisis has had on decreasing the legitimacy of older political parties and on increasing the opportunities for new parties, despite the fact that recent election reports from Greece indicate that this has been the case (Tucker 2012).

Much of the existing literature on new parliamentary parties addresses the factors that support the emergence of new parties but tends to overlook the placement of new parties in the existing parliamentary party systems in general, as well as the long-term functioning of party systems in particular. Furthermore, this type of research is scarce in fragmented party systems--particularly in consolidated post-communist party systems. One of the most notable weaknesses of the current research concerns the explanatory power of the (changing) patterns of party competition in an analysis of the dynamics of the party system (as suggested by Mair 2006).

In this article, we aim to tackle the described research gap by examining the Slovenian party system--an interesting research laboratory where electoral rules could be treated as a constant. From a comparative perspective, the Slovenian party system has changed gradually and moderately. It stands out among the post-socialist EU member states by being among the least polarized systems in Central and Eastern Europe while being characterised by persistent party fragmentation, relatively dispersed party competition, rather soft ideological changes in government, and by its stability for most of the period since 1990 (Haughton & Deegan-Krause 2010; Enyedi & Bertoa, 2011; Fink-Hafner 2012). Nevertheless, the Slovenian case shows that the legitimacy of the older parties becomes threatened in circumstances in which national politics become bipolar (centre-left and centre-right) and the politicisation of the EU-linked management of the international financial and economic crisis not only interlinks, but reinforces political divisions in both national and supranational arenas (Fink-Hafner 2012; 2013). This opens a window of opportunity for newcomers to enter the legislative and the government. The research framework, including domestic factors as well as the international factors of party system change (such as the problem of financial mismanagement and corruption which became more pronounced in the context of the crisis), may not only be particular to Slovenia, but also applicable beyond the Slovenian case. Also, the considerable reduction in electoral support for the previously strong political parties as well as the recent significant success of new parties (Havlik 2013) has not been confined to Central and Eastern European countries, but this phenomenon has also occurred elsewhere in Europe with the recent rise of extreme-right parties comparable to the 1930s. (5)

In this article we are not interested in the factors enabling new parties to enter parliament, but rather in the factors which impact on the durability of parliamentary newcomers. The empirical research is based on comparisons of the new parties that have entered the National Assembly of the Republic of Slovenia during the period of consolidation of the Slovenian party system (1992-2011), namely: SNS, DeSUS, SMS, NSi, Zares, LZJ-PS and DLGV. Since the latter two parties entered parliament for the first time in 2011, we will focus for the most part on those parties which have had at least theoretical chances to re-enter the parliament in the period studied. So far, only two of these parties (SNS and DeSUS) have endured more than two consecutive mandates since first entering parliament (see Table 1). Based on our findings on the factors determining the long-term success of new parties prior to 2011, we will discuss the possible continuity of LZJ-PS and DLGV.

In the following sections, we will firstly present an overview of the literature on new political parties. Secondly, we will present a framework for analysing the factors determining the long term success of new parties. Finally, we will examine the empirical findings on the success of new parties in Slovenia since 1992, and we will conclude with a summary of our findings.

Previous Theoretical Findings

Previous studies of new parties have invariably focused exclusively on either Green, left-libertarian, right-wing populist, immigrant parties or regional parties (Hug 2000; Selb & Pituctin 2010). Methodological designs have involved case studies (the selection of cases for empirical study has sometimes been problematic from a methodological point of view--as noted by Hug 2000), cross-national statistical analyses, Boolean methods and game-theory methods (Harmel & Robertson 1985; Selb & Pituctin 2010; Bischoff 2011). More recently, however, particular attention has been paid to combining quantitative and qualitative research (Bolleyer 2013).

Among the factors supporting the emergence of new parties, the following are usually cited: institutional rules (particularly electoral rules); new issues or values; various kinds of social diversity and socio-economic inequalities; political factors involving the behaviour of existing parties; voters' attitudes; the characteristics of party competition; the salience of new issues; as well as the structural characteristics of political systems (e.g. Harmel & Robertson 1985; Muller-Rommel 1985; Krouwel & Lucardie 2008). The emergence of new Green parties has been further explained by the link between, firstly, the shift from a modern industrial society to a post-modern, post-industrial society and, secondly, the emergence of new dimensions of political conflict as well as the emergence of a new social core group that is supportive of new politics (see Burklin 1985). According to Rochon (1985), Lucardie (2000) as well as Lago & Martinez (2011) a political opportunity structure also matters (for example, the rapid de-alignment of the electorate, a combination of electoral market failure and a high number of perfectly elastic voters, or the combined positions of other relevant parties, institutional and socio-economic and cultural conditions). More recently, additional factors determining the success of new parties have been identified. These include a party's electoral support at breakthrough and its operation in a system with a strong regional tier as well as access to free broadcasting (Bolleyer & Bytzek 2013). By contrast, some authors have examined the barriers to the entrance of new parties (Bischoff 2011). Very little research, however, has been conducted on the question of which factors support the durability of new parties and their longterm presence in the party system (Berrington 1985; Haughton & Deegan-Krause 2010). More recently, Bolleyer (2013) stresses that only a combination of both structural and agential factors can be fruitful.

While we agree with Bolleyer, we stress the need to take into account the particularities of the structural and agential factors within the framework of the crisis. In this article we have chosen to focus on a case study (Slovenia) because it allows us to 1) leave out the impact of an important set of institutional variables relating to electoral engineering as well as 2) to take into account a variation in party legitimacy relating to the behaviour of political party elites as agents, and 3) the periodical impact of economic crisis.

Institutional Factors

A broad cross-country statistical analysis of new parties formed in old democracies from 1960 to 1980 reveals that the type of electoral system provides the key to explaining the success of new parties (Harmel & Robertson 1985). Proportional systems tend to be more open to newcomers than systems with majoritarian rules. Although stricter electoral rules may produce temporarily visible effects (such as blocking small parties), in the longer run they lose their effectiveness since political parties tend to adapt to new rules in order to become more successful at elections, for example, by forming party coalitions (see Shugart 1992). However, the details of electoral rules may produce different effects than the general type of electoral system at the national level would suggest (see Selb & Pituctin 2010). Furthermore, electoral rules do not seem to be important unless the costs of electoral access are exceptionally high or unless other potential explanatory factors come into play (Bischoff 2011). Although institutional rules do matter for parties competing for parliamentary seats, it is also true that, as a rule (6), political parties decide the electoral rules.

Political Milieu

The party system milieu

In a two-party system only two parties have a realistic chance of coming to power and they typically alternate in government...