PARENTAL ALLOWANCE IN SERBIA--EXAMINING THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION RECOMMENDATIONS.

• Author: Vasic, Petar

1. Introduction

   The last decade of the twentieth century in Serbia was marked by a large number of negative and turbulent events such as the war in the former Yugoslav republics, economic sanctions, hyperinflation, large inflow of refugees from the war affected areas, the NATO bombing, etc. Depopulation of the early 1990s accidentally coincided with the breakup of the SFR of Yugoslavia, but it certainly represents a natural continuation and effect of the long-term fertility decline. The Republic of Serbia (excluding autonomous region Kosovo and Metohia) has been facing below-replacement fertility since the mid-1950s, when the total fertility rate for the last time was above the replacement level. Therefore, the below-replacement phenomenon in Serbia is 60 years old, that is, the population has not replaced itself biologically for a long time, resulting in the intense demographic ageing and since the beginning of 1990s the population has declined. Consequently, 'the identification and implementation of ways to prevent the adverse future consequences of rapid population ageing represent the urgent new public policy challenges' (Bongaarts, 2008).

   There is a large majority of European countries facing below-replacement fertility, and many of them have recognized the need to react and push population fertility towards sustainable population development. Some of the countries are implementing explicit pronatalist population policies, and some are dealing with below-replacement fertility implicitly, but all of them have recognized the significance of sustainable population development. Nevertheless, the issue of childbearing is very intimate for individuals, and thus the interference of the state into this sphere of human behavior has to be subtle and must not cause resistance, despite the benefits for future parents. In creating population policy measures, governments should take into consideration the recommendations dealing with childbearing, fully respecting all civil rights as achievements of modern civilization. Therefore, any pronatalist measure, which is restrictive, cannot be acceptable, such as abortion prohibition, or bachelor taxes, etc. Pronatalist measures should be stimulating, implemented according to the postulates of civil and reproductive rights. According to the Constitution of Republic of Serbia every citizen has the right to decide if, when, and how many children they want to have. In creating population policy measures and family planning, relevant institutions and lawmakers should take into consideration several basic recommendations related to population fertility, such as those of the World Health Organization (WHO), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and numerous studies considering childbearing (WHO, 2006; Kozuki et al., 2013; USAID, 2007; Khalil et al., 2013). These recommendations actually consider when and how many children individuals should have, regarding optimal health outcomes. These recommendations are also known as the 'four noes' recommendations of the family planning. 'Births that occur at the extremes of maternal age and parity, as well as those following very short intervals, experience higher than average mortality risks' (Bongaarts, 1987, p. 323).

2. Aim of the paper, data and methodology

   The main aim of this paper is to show the tendencies in population fertility regarding WHO recommendations in Serbia during the past few decades, with an intention to raise questions about redefining pronatalist population policy measures--particularly parental allowance. We analyzed population fertility with the main focus on the age pattern of childbearing, trying to identify and explain potential demographic consequences of childbearing postponement. The secondary aim of this paper is to show possible effects of pronatalist measures conducted in Serbia since 2002. Consequently, our final aim is to show that, in terms of serious childbirth postponement, population policy measures must be pushed towards the respect of the childbirth age. We assume that formulating and implementing age-specific pronatalist measures could stop, or at least slow down birth postponement in Serbia. The amount of state assets designed for parental allowance is not unlimited, but surely not negligible; the question is whether it could be distributed in a more effective way. Our intention is to show in what way parental allowance would be distributed if the mentioned recommendations were regarded and included in the system of pronatalist measures. Also, according to our deep conviction, with allocated funds similar to those already allocated to this measure, a greater pronatalist effect could be achieved.

   Demographic analysis of fertility in Serbia is an integral part of this paper on the basis of which we will present trends in procreation in the context of the WHO recommendations. Transversal (period) and cohort (longitudinal) methods of data analysis will be used. Moreover, demographers actually disagree about the absolute supremacy of cohort data over period data. Period data reflect short-term effects, including policy effects of the kind the analyst is looking for, while cohort data are complementary and reflect longer-term developments. It is important to note that policy impacts on fertility extend beyond the impact on ultimate cohort fertility. 'Indeed, exclusive concentration on the cumulative fertility rate (CFR) may lead to a different fallacy, namely, to a fixation on the lifetime end product of childbearing (the 'quantum of fertility'), and to a lack of attention to important timing effects' (Hoem, 2008, p. 253). The main indicator in the transversal analysis is the total fertility rate (TFR). TFR refers to the average number of children per woman that a hypothetical cohort of women would bear over the course of their reproductive life if they were subject to the age-specific fertility rates estimated over a given period and were not subject to mortality. TFR is therefore a period measure constructed by summing the age-specific fertility rates (ASFR (1)) per one woman, and multiplying by the length of the age groups used. In addition, the use of specialized computer software Geomedia and ArcView GIS for spatial analysis (cartographic representation) will be necessary.

   The census data with the question of the number of live births allow the use of cohort analysis of population fertility and calculation of the CFR. Unlike the transversal method, a hypothetical cohort analysis follows a woman through the entire reproductive period, and observes fertility of certain groups of women born in the same year. Naturally, there are disadvantages of longitudinal analysis of fertility. The total number of children born by a certain cohort of women, coming out of the fertile period, cannot be registered. Only live births by women encompassed by the population census can be registered. The reasons are migration of female population and their mortality.

   Research on the territory of Serbia will be limited to the territory of central Serbia and Vojvodina. Data for Kosovo and Metohia will not be analyzed due to the uncertainty, and in the period after 1997, the insufficient level required for the analysis. The research will be conducted on the entire set of population in the Republic of Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohia), and depending on the level of analysis will be limited to the period around the census years, starting from 1991 to 2011. Data of live births from vital statistics and population data (total and by structures) from the census will be used. Data will also be retrieved from the websites: European Statistical Agency (Eurostat), the databases of vital events for selected countries developed by the UC Berkeley and the Max Planck Institute (Human Mortality Database) and national statistical services.

3. Population policy in Serbia and WHO recommendations

   3.1. Brief description of population policy measures since 1945

   As for the history of social policy measures that had influence on population development, there were numerous documents implicitly dealing with population policy shortly after World War II (Gavrilovic, 2005). These earlier measures with the population character were conducted selectively and actually the government would classify the low-fertility and high-fertility regions. The main criterion for defining the low-fertility, and high-fertility areas was the level of natural growth rate. However, during the last decade of the twentieth century the number of municipalities with negative natural growth rate was rising, and as at the beginning of the 21st century the vast majority of municipalities in Serbia recorded a negative rate of natural increase, this classification and selective implementation of the measures have been abandoned. In that manner in 2002 the Law on Financial Support to Families with Children (LFSFC) was adopted, and it may be considered the first systematic political response of the state to the below-replacement fertility.

   The mentioned law from 2002 is being implemented throughout the territory of Serbia without any limitations regarding demographic indicators in different municipalities, as well as without limitations considering financial status of families attaining rights provided by the Law. LFSFC stipulates two basic financial measures: full compensation of salary to the working parent (mother or father) during parental leave, and the parental allowance for the first, second, third and fourth child of the mother (Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, 2009). The parental leave is limited to 12 months after the birth of the first and the second child, and to 24 months after the birth of the third and every following child. Parental allowance is granted for the first, second, third and fourth child of the mother, and the amount corresponds to and changes with the costs of living, increasing with birth order, and is paid in 24...