Econometric determination of voting behaviour

Author:Nicolae-Marius Jula - Nicoleta Jula
Position:Senior Lecturer, Ph.D., Faculty of Economic Sciences, 'NicolaeTitulescu' University, Bucharest, Romania - Professor, Ph.D., Faculty of Economic Sciences, 'NicolaeTitulescu' University, Bucharest, Romania
Pages:146-153
SUMMARY

In this paper, we are testing the responsive hypothesis: if the economy is growing strongly and unemployment is low, the incumbent party has a very good chance of retaining office. When the economy is faltering, voters will more likely vote for change. We use econometric models for forecasting, based on economic data, the voter's choices and the evolution of the economy under the influence of... (see full summary)

 
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146 Lex ET Scientia. Economics Series
LESIJ NO. XIX, VOL. 1/2012
ECONOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF VOTING BEHAVIOUR
Nicolae-Marius JULA*
Nicoleta JULA**
Abstract
In this paper, we are testing the responsive hypothesis: if the economy is growing strongly
and unemployment is low, the incumbent party has a very good chance of retaining office. When the
economy is faltering, voters will more likely vote for change. We use econometric models for
forecasting, based on economic data, the voter's choices and the evolution of the economy under the
influence of political pressure.
Keywords: economic voting, responsive hypothesis, econometric forecasting, regional data
analysis, vote function
Introduction
Forecasting the voting results using the economic data has been an intensive research in
western democracies and United States. In Romania, the democratic experience computes a small
number of electoral moments. Therefore, it is not possible yet to build an electoral behaviour
econometric model using the political time series. In these circumstances, in the following section, by
the examination of the political and economic dynamics during the 1990-2012, we try only to
identify some significant signals concerning the economic impact of the electoral timing. We use an
econometric model to analysis the political behaviour using a regional economic and political data.
The analyses start from the study of Ray C. Fair, The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for
President. We adapt his model to Romanian's situation and we use this for forecasting the voting
results using quarterly data from 2000 until 2012.
The importance of such a study is underlined also by rich international literature focused on
the impact of the political behaviour on economic conditions. It is important to analyse if political
factors do influence the economy not for the common wealth, but for increasing their chances of re-
election.
The answer to this subject is reflected by the results presented in this study. The economic and
econometric evidences are presented to support the results. There is a large specialized international
literature on economic voting and we tested some methods and models to find out if the results for
Romania are in accordance with the results obtained for other western democracies
Ray C. Fair econometric model
In USA, like in other democracies, the voters tend to be influenced by the state of economy. If
the economy is growing strongly and unemployment is low, the incumbent party has a very good
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* Senior Lecturer, Ph.D., Faculty of Economic Sciences, “NicolaeTitulescu” University, Bucharest, Romania
(email: mariusjula@univnt.ro)
** Professor, Ph.D., Faculty of Economic Sciences, “NicolaeTitulescu” University, Bucharest, Romania (email:
nicoletajula@yahoo.com).

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