Correlation of demographic-economic evolutions in Romania after the 2008 economic crisis

• Author: Litra, A. V.
• Position: Dept. of Finances, Accounting and Economics, Transilvania University of Brasov
• Pages: 95-100

Bulletin of the Transilvania University of Braşov • Vol. 6 (55) •No. 2 - 2013

Series V: Economic Sciences

CORRELATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC-

ECONOMIC EVOLUTIONS IN ROMANIA

AFTER THE 2008 ECONOMIC CRISIS

Adriana Veronica LITR

1

Abstract: The pa per aims to cla rify the extent to which economic

developments after 2008, la rgely due to the global economic crisis, ha ve had

an impact on demogra phic indicators in Romania. F rom the correlation

ana lysis between the series of econ omic and demogra phic data (with a delay

of one year), concluded that unemployment strongly influence live births a nd

total fertility ra te (especia lly for first-born), and in a medium measur e the

natura l population change, and GDP is str ongly correla ted with the natur al

growth of the population, and medium cor related with the number of live

births, tota l fertility rate a nd the number of marria ges.

Key words: economic cr isis, co rrelation coefficient, demographic

indicator s.

1. Introduction

2013 is the 5-th year since the beginning

of the world economic crisis. Started on

September 2008, after the collapse of the

investment bank Lehman Brothers, the

crisis materialized in a lot of banks,

investment funds and American companies

bankruptcies, and the effects quickly

spread in Europe.

Far from a satisfactory economical

development stage, Romania had to face a

new challenge: a decline in economical

indicators, followed by questionable

governmental measures in order to keep the

budget at the waterline, leading to social

tensions and incertitude.

Already a country with a low level of the

average income per inhabitant and a poor

standard of living, after the crisis began,

economic problems first arose to Romanian

people the problem of the possibilities of

1 Dept. of Finances, Accounting and Economics, Transilvania University of Braov.

earning their living, and not the last the

possibilities of supporting a new member in

their own family.

Even if the issue of the demographic

dynamics related to economical decline has

been often tackled, it’s accepted that

fertility follows the economic cycle, falling

in periods of recession and vice-versa,

though scientific evidence is still not

unanimous on this.

This paper aims at testing how sensitive

the demographic indicators have been for

the case of Romania, at the economic

decline after 2008.

2. General economic context

Romania has not been avoided by the

general crisis came from America. A

contribution to increasing the effects of

crisis brought the external high deficit of the

country. There were also other factors that