CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION OF ROMANIA DURING 1990-2013.

• Author: Andrei, Tudorel

1. Introduction

   Demographic change is a prominent phenomenon of the present society, having major implications at social and economic level. Phenomena like the ageing of the population, decrease of fertility rates or international migration represent widely debated issues in demographic studies (Coleman and Rowthorn, 2011).

   The population of Romania has known a great dynamics after the political changes from 1989 which had major implications at social and economic level (Muresan and Rotariu, 2000). During this time period, the main causes of the demographic evolutions recorded have been the negative natural increase (Ghetau, 2012) as well as international migration (Ghetau, 2005; Sandu, 2010). The negative natural increase has not been characteristic only for the population evolution of Romania, but also for other countries (Lesthaeghe and Willems, 1999). However, since 1989 Romania has one of the lowest total fertility rate worldwide (Rotariu, 2006b). International migration, which also had an influence on the dynamics of the population, has been recorded not only in Romania, but also in the neighboring countries (Aliu, 2013). Thus, in 2004 it has been estimated that after the year 1989 approximately 15% of the total population from the Western Balkans has been part of the migration process due to various reasons - ethnical or economic reasons (Baldwin-Edwards, 2004). Migration, especially among working age population, may lead to the situation in which companies from Romania have to employ immigrants from other regions of the world (Silasi and Simina, 2007) due to reduced access to labor force on the local labor market.

   After 1989, the demographic evolutions have generated other phenomena with socio-economic implications, namely aging of population (Rotariu, 2006a). A perpetuation of the current demographic trends might lead to a considerable decrease of the population of Romania. It is estimated (Ghetau, 2004) that by 2050 the population might decrease under 16 million inhabitants.

   The structure and dynamics of the population, the aging of population and the migration phenomena are widely studied by Rotariu (2009) and Ghetau (2012) while international migration is analyzed by Sandu (2010), Ghetau (2012), Rotariu and Mezei (1999) and Kurko (2011).

   The present study covers several characteristics of demographic changes in Romania. Hence, the second section covers the evolution of the population of Romania during 2002-2013, highlighting the determinants which led to decrease in population. The third section describes the population pyramid in 2002 compared to 2013, emphasizing four important phases in the evolution of the population of Romania. Section four presents the structure by gender of the population of Romania in 2002 in contrast to 2013, while the fifth section focuses on international migration emphasizing the difficulties in estimating its evolution in time. The present study ends with a series of conclusions which point out the main demographic changes during 1990-2013.

2. General characteristics of the population

   The resident population of Romania at 1st of January 2013 has been 20.02 million inhabitants (out of which 9.76 million males and 10.26 million females), being approximately equal to the population registered on the 1st of July 1969 (20.01 million persons, out of which 9.8 million males and 10.2 million females) (INS, 2013b).

   The high level of international migration recorded after 1989 has generated major difficulties in estimating the resident population of Romania between the two Population and Housing Censuses (PHC). For 2002 to 2013 INS has determined the resident population according to international methodology and regulation in this field. Therefore, the resident population 'includes all the persons who have the habitual residence in Romania for at least 12 months' (INS, 2014b). Through this approach, the data have been estimated based on the final result of the Population and Housing Census 2011 (PHC) (INS, 2013b) and do not cover Romanian citizens which are abroad for at least 12 months. The following paragraphs describe some characteristics of the resident population's dynamics in Romania during 2002-2012, and also throughout the transition period from 1990 to 2012.

   The population of Romania at 1st of January 2013 is the result of the evolution of birth rate, mortality and international migration over the last 23 years. Table 1 shows the resident population of Romania at January 1st by gender and by year.

   During 2002-2012, the resident population of Romania has decreased with over 1.7 million inhabitants. Expressed in percentage, the decrease has been of 7.8%. The negative natural increase average annual rate of -0.74% highlights a decrease of the resident population of Romania compared to -0.52% for the timeframe 1990-2002.

   The decreasing trend of the resident population of Romania during the transition period from 1990 to 2012 has three main causes.

   Firstly, it relates to the unprecedented dimension of external migration considering the modern history of Romania. Hence, in this timeframe more than 77% of the resident population negative natural increase of 3,110,724 inhabitants has been due to external migration. International migration has generated an average annual decrease by about 104.2 thousand inhabitants of the resident population of Romania.

   The second important factor which had a contribution in reducing the resident population has been the decrease of live births from 314,746 in 1990 to 180,714 in 2012 (INS, 2014a). During this time period the birth rate has dropped from 13.6 live births per 1,000 inhabitants to 9.0 in 2012 (INS, 2014a). In 1990 the number of births has dropped with almost 15% compared to 1989 as a result of legalizing abortion and of promoting contraceptive methods, hence choosing a different type of familial planning.

   The third factor refers to the high level of deaths recorded in this time frame. In 2012, 6,630 more deaths have been registered than in 1990 (INS, 2014a). Over this time period an increase of death rate per 1,000 inhabitants from 10.6 in 1990 to 12.6 in 2012 has been recorded.

   During 2002-2012, the decrease of the resident population of Romania has been reduced by 23% due to the negative natural increase of the population and due to external migration by 77%.

   If for the following time period the current negative trend of the resident population continues as for 2002-2012, than the resident population will drop to 18.3 million inhabitants in 2025, and to 15 million inhabitants in 2050.

3. The population pyramid

   The population pyramid or age pyramid is a useful tool in studying the population of a country. Through this instrument we highlight the influence of economic and political factors on demographic characteristic regarding the population of a country. The population pyramid shows, both for men and women, the population structure by age 0 to 100 years.

   The history of a country engraves wars, social movements, political changes...