Analysis of fertility in ten Central and Eastern European Countries after 1989.

AuthorJemna, Danut-Vasile
  1. Introduction

    The change of regimes in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after 1989, which was succeeded by a political, social and economic transition process, has been accompanied by important demographic changes. The main question is if these demographic transformations are strongly influenced by transition or represent normal changes, which continue the past tendencies of demographic phenomena. A certainty is that CEE countries have experienced a decline in fertility after 1989, but this fall was already underway since the last decades of the past communist period. Long-term trends of decline in fertility finally lead to a relative stabilization of the phenomena starting with the second decade of the '90s. This result is predicted by the theory of demographic transition, which was developed in relation to demographic changes in Western European countries. The transformations after 1989 in the CEE countries have facilitated the demographic evolutions of this area in accord with the model proposed by this theory, but with specific elements of this transition period and of these ex-communist countries.

    The existence of a common pattern of demographic evolution for CEE countries was advanced by recent studies (Rodin, 2011, pp. 221-230). At the same time, we believe that there are significant differences within the European area (Billingsley, 2010, pp. 193-231), especially between countries that joined the EU and other countries. In this research paper an analysis of the evolution of fertility in a limited group of countries in the CEE region is proposed, namely in ten EU states: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Hungary. The main objective of this paper is to quantitatively explain the evolution of fertility in these 10 countries using the univariate and multivariate statistical analysis and the econometric modeling based on official statistical data from the period 1989-2010. Identifying similarities and differences, and the existence of some demographic transition highlights, which are specific to the EU area, in CEE countries are important research objectives. This can help in explaining the phenomenon through an analysis that includes the experience of these countries with similar backgrounds and similar features.

    The basic hypothesis in this paper is that post-communist demographic changes for these ten countries comply with a common pattern and that after 1989 there are no spectacular demographic transformations, but we are dealing with a continuation and a stabilization of the trends of the previous period, trends that some studies have ignored (Cornia and Paniccia, 1996; Ranjan, 1999, pp. 25-43). The decline in fertility in the ten CEE countries can be explained by the demographic transition theory and the new social and economic conditions in this region after the fall of the communism. According to the theory of demographic transition, shortly after 1989, demographic trends in CEE countries tend to stabilize their evolution. In the case of fertility, the decreasing trends reach weak fluctuations around small values, below the replacement rate, with an average of 1.44 children per woman, between 1989 and 2010 (Eurostat, 2012). This situation must be correlated both with the high inertia of demographic phenomena in time, and with the specific conditions of the socio-economic transition.

    The long-term trend of the demographic decline combined with the socio-economic specific of the transition process in CEE countries, bring into question the importance of development policies on medium and long term, and within them the place and role that the demographic situation plays for the future of these countries. For public institutions, at the central level, but also for local governments is essential to identify the determinant factors having an impact on fertility and population growth, so that the future development policies allow for concrete and effective actions to overcome the demographic crisis in which the countries from the former communist bloc have entered. The studies on the demographic situation in the CEE countries, this research paper included, are very topical concerns for academic research and with direct interest for policy decision makers of central and local public administration.

  2. Theoretical aspects on the evolution of fertility in CEE countries

    Scientific literature outlined a series of explanatory hypotheses for the demographic evolution of the former communist countries of Europe. In summary, we can identify three possible conceptual approaches on fertility decline in the CEE countries. A number of studies support a strictly demographic explanation of the evolution of fertility in these countries in the post-communism period (Zakharov, 1997; Rabusic, 1996, pp. 29-42; Rychtarikova, 1999; Sobotka, Skirbekk and Philipov, 2011, pp. 267- 306), on the line of the second demographic transition theory. Other authors argue that demographic decline, which is a combination of low crude birth rate, high crude mortality rates and negative net migration rates, is the result of poor economic situation, low living standards (Ranjan, 1999, pp. 25-43) and specific social transformations in transition countries (Cornia and Paniccia, 1996). A third approach takes into account both the effects of demographic transition and the social and economic transition. Thus, the low fertility rate is due to postponement of first child birth and first marriage, to lower crude birth rates, and specific conditions of economic crises in these countries (Billingsley, 2010, pp. 193-231).

    According to the first hypothesis, since 1989, in the CEE countries, the conceptual explanation involves the characteristics of demographic transition (Jozwiak and Kotowska, 2008, pp. 225-236). In Europe, the demographic transition took shape since the Industrial Revolution which meant the transition from a traditional society with high birth and mortality rates to an industrialized society where birth and death rates are stabilized at low levels (Coale, 1973). Starting with the 50-60's, demographic trends have been explained in the literature by the theory of the 'second demographic transition' (Van de Kaa, 1988). This is a theory of cultural change which aims to explain the evolution of fertility below the replacement rate or the postponement. According to this approach, the changes in patterns of family formation and of decision making regarding family can be explained and understood as changes in the value system regarding family behavior and fertility, and as lifestyle changes (Jozwiak and Kotowska, 2008, pp. 225-236). This theory is characterized by a 'split' between marriage and procreation, resulting in an increase in the number of children outside of marriage and grown by a single parent. Other features relevant to this theory show a further decline in fertility and postponement, the existence of advanced contraceptive methods, increasing individual needs simultaneously with increasing the autonomy of women in society and in family life. The second demographic transition requires new social challenges, expanding migration linked to the instability of property and manifestation of 'multicultural society'. There are authors (Cliquet, 1991) who argue that there is just a linear continuation of the initial demographic transition and we cannot speak about a second transition.

    Analysis of the main demographic changes in the CEE countries allows the hypothesis that the demographic transition phenomenon is also recorded in this area following the coordinates of Western European countries' process (Zakharov, 1997, pp.271-290; Rabusic, 1996, pp. 29-42; Rychtarikova, 1999; Bloom et al., 2010, pp. 141158). Fertility indicators during 1960-1970 suggest a more pronounced decline for CEE states (total fertility rate below 2.0 in Hungary, Estonia and Latvia), compared with the Western states. In the communist countries, the next period, 1970-1980, was characterized by certain stability in the fertility rate, which is associated in literature with the reconsideration of the demographic and social policy measures (Sobotka, 2003, pp. 451-486). Among the measures implemented are noted pro-natalist policies (Muresan et al., 2008, pp. 855-906), which aim at: providing benefits for children gradually with the number of children in family, consistent maternity allowance and extended period of maternity leave (Klinger, 1991, pp. 511-526), families with children get priority housing from the state, prohibiting abortion (Blayo, 1991, pp. 527- 546), and fee for employed bachelors and employed unmarried women. Despite these policies, the decline in fertility could not be stopped, so that in the second half of the decade the total fertility rate (TFR) continued to decline.

    Fertility decline in the CEE countries after 1989 can be explained mainly by changes in the values system (Balbo, 2009), transformations that appear with the passage to the democratic society. Lesthaeghe and Surkyn (2002) emphasized the link between demographic and ideational transformations, identifying three main characteristics of those: (i) the accentuation of individual autonomy in ethical, moral and political spheres; (ii) the concomitant rejection of all forms of institutional controls and authority; (iii) the rise of expressive values connected to the so called 'higher order needs' of self-actualization, self-fulfillment and a quest for recognition.

    In light of empirical evaluation, the operationalization of the dimensions suggested by the theory of demographic transition can be achieved using the following variables: divorce rate, marriage rate, the rate of births outside marriage, abortion rate, and average age of women at first birth and at first marriage.

    Studies on demographic transition after 1989 in the CEE countries have proposed the concept of 'demographic transition crisis' (Cornia and Paniccia...

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